Fortaleza FC vs Barranquilla — Primera B 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 97+ matches
Fortaleza FC58%
Barranquilla19%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Fortaleza FC creates 98% more chances
Season form · 97 home / 125 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- No52
- Yes48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Fortaleza FC ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Fortaleza FC at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.97 · 97 matches
Barranquilla away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.59 · 125 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Fortaleza FC attack 1.89 + Barranquilla defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.74
Barranquilla attack 0.78 + Fortaleza FC defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.88
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 58%?"
Fortaleza FC at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 58% does not mean "Fortaleza FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Internacional Palmira
Real Cartagena
Quindio
Patriotas
Real Soacha
Jaguares
Cucuta
Envigado
Bogota FC
Union Magdalena
Popayan
Tigres FCBarranquilla
Huila
Orsomarso
Real Santander
Depor FC
Leones FC
Ind. YumboIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Fortaleza FC host Barranquilla on Sunday, 2 April 2023 at 20:15. The match is part of the Primera B 2018/2019 season.
Primera B: Fortaleza FC 3–1 Barranquilla
Fortaleza FC beat Barranquilla 3-1 in Primera B on April 2, 2023.
Goals: C. Lucumi (18'), M. Bacca (25'), J. Blanco (29'), L. Jiménez (55').
The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano de Techo in Bogotá, D.C..