Fortaleza EC 1–1 LDU de Quito: Result & Stats

Fortaleza EC

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

LDU de Quito

Tinga 120+8' (pen)

Yago Pikachu 120+4' (pen)

Thiago Galhardo 120+2' (pen)

J. Lucero 48'

L. Piovi 120+11' (pen)

J. Julio 120+7' (pen)

M. Martínez 120+5' (pen)

L. Alzugaray 120+3' (pen), 56'

10/28/2023

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · FinalEstadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Fortaleza EC61%

×Draw20%

LDU de Quito19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortaleza ECExpected goals in this matchLDU de Quito

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.11

Fortaleza EC

2.15

LDU de Quito

1.11

Fortaleza EC creates 94% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

2.83

creates per match

1.23

1.00

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Fortaleza EC

2.83

LDU de Quito

1.23

allows per match

Fortaleza EC

1.00

LDU de Quito

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortaleza EC+0.00on par

LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortaleza EC ↓

LDU de Quito →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Fortaleza EC or draw

81%

Fortaleza EC or LDU de Quito

80%

Draw or LDU de Quito

39%

Winning margin

Fortaleza EC wins by 2+

38%

LDU de Quito wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Fortaleza EC 1+ goals

88%

Fortaleza EC 2+ goals

63%

Fortaleza EC 3+ goals

36%

LDU de Quito 1+ goals

67%

LDU de Quito 2+ goals

30%

LDU de Quito 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Fortaleza EC (draw refunded)

76%

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortaleza EC at home — creates 2.83, concedes 1.00 · 12 matches

LDU de Quito away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortaleza EC attack 2.83 + LDU de Quito defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 2.15

LDU de Quito attack 1.23 + Fortaleza EC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Fortaleza EC scores more

61%

level

20%

LDU de Quito scores more

19%

Fortaleza EC at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Fortaleza EC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

L. Alzugaray

LDU de Quito · M

7.7

Match Events

18'

Caio Alexandre

36'

Paolo Guerrero

40'

L. Alzugaray← R. Ibarra

41'

Guilherme Augusto

48'

J. Lucero↳ T. Pochettino

52'

Marinho

56'

L. Alzugaray↳ M. Martínez

64'

A. Alvarado← S. González

65'

Yago Pikachu← Guilherme

74'

I. Machuca← Marinho

81'

Emanuel Brítez

83'

Thiago Galhardo← T. Pochettino

84'

Pedro Augusto← José Welison

97'

B. Ramírez← L. Quiñónez

99'

Ezequiel Piovi

100'

S. Romero← J. Lucero

105'

Lucas Sasha← Caio Alexandre

120+1'

P. GuerreroMissed penalty

120+2'

Thiago GalhardoPenalty

120+3'

L. AlzugarayPenalty

120+4'

Yago PikachuPenalty

120+5'

M. MartínezPenalty

120+6'

S. RomeroMissed penalty

120+7'

J. JulioPenalty

120+8'

TingaPenalty

120+9'

A. AlvaradoMissed penalty

120+10'

Pedro AugustoMissed penalty

120+11'

L. PioviPenalty

120+12'

E. BrítezMissed penalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FortalezaLDU

Overview

52%Possession48%

9Total Shots13

4Corners2

13Fouls21

Shots

9Total Shots13

4On Target3

3Off Target6

2Blocked4

8Inside Box7

1Outside Box6

Passing

52%Possession48%

401Total Passes381

281Accurate Passes264

70%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls21

4Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2