Fortaleza EC 2–1 Juventude: Result & Stats

Fortaleza EC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Juventude

Yago Pikachu 45+3'

J. Lucero 21' (pen)

Ewerthon 74'

6/30/2024

Serie A · Round 13Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Fortaleza EC53%

×Draw25%

Juventude23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortaleza ECExpected goals in this matchJuventude

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.00

Fortaleza EC

1.65

Juventude

1.00

Fortaleza EC creates 65% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 16 away

1.55

creates per match

0.91

1.08

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Fortaleza EC

1.55

Juventude

0.91

allows per match

Fortaleza EC

1.08

Juventude

1.75

+0.05on par

finishing

+0.22scores more than expected

finishing

Fortaleza EC+0.05on par

Juventude+0.22scores more

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortaleza EC ↓

Juventude →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Fortaleza EC or draw

77%

Fortaleza EC or Juventude

75%

Draw or Juventude

47%

Winning margin

Fortaleza EC wins by 2+

28%

Juventude wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Fortaleza EC 1+ goals

81%

Fortaleza EC 2+ goals

49%

Fortaleza EC 3+ goals

23%

Juventude 1+ goals

63%

Juventude 2+ goals

26%

Juventude 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Fortaleza EC (draw refunded)

70%

Juventude (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortaleza EC at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.08 · 25 matches

Juventude away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.75 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortaleza EC attack 1.55 + Juventude defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.65

Juventude attack 0.91 + Fortaleza EC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Fortaleza EC scores more

53%

level

25%

Juventude scores more

23%

Fortaleza EC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Fortaleza EC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

T. Pochettino

Fortaleza EC · M

8.3

Match Events

18'

Breno LopesPenalty confirmed

21'

J. LuceroPenalty

45+3'

Yago Pikachu↳ T. Pochettino

46'

Ewerthon← Erick Farias

46'

Gilberto← Gabriel Taliari

55'

Yago Pikachu

67'

Nenê← Jean Carlos

68'

Lucas Sasha

70'

Bruno Pacheco← T. Pochettino

74'

Ewerthon↳ João Lucas

77'

Ruan← Lucas Barbosa

77'

Mandaca← Jádson

81'

Renato Kayzer← Breno Lopes

88'

Dudu← Yago Pikachu

89'

Matheus Rossetto← J. Lucero

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FortalezaJuventude

Overview

38%Possession62%

19Total Shots12

2.84Expected Goals (xG)1.12

7Corners5

22Fouls16

Shots

19Total Shots12

7On Target3

6Off Target7

6Blocked2

14Inside Box6

5Outside Box6

Passing

38%Possession62%

286Total Passes479

216Accurate Passes404

76%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

1.40Goals Prevented1.40

Discipline

22Fouls16

2Yellow Cards0