Fortaleza EC 1–0 Criciuma: Result & Stats | Serie A

Fortaleza EC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Criciuma

Moisés 47'

8/10/2024

Serie A · Round 22Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Fortaleza EC48%

×Draw26%

Criciuma26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortaleza ECExpected goals in this matchCriciuma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.00

Fortaleza EC

1.46

Criciuma

1.00

Fortaleza EC creates 46% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 10 away

1.40

creates per match

0.97

1.04

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Fortaleza EC

1.40

Criciuma

0.97

allows per match

Fortaleza EC

1.04

Criciuma

1.53

+0.06on par

finishing

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

Fortaleza EC+0.06on par

Criciuma+0.13scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortaleza EC ↓

Criciuma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Fortaleza EC or draw

74%

Fortaleza EC or Criciuma

74%

Draw or Criciuma

52%

Winning margin

Fortaleza EC wins by 2+

24%

Criciuma wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Fortaleza EC 1+ goals

77%

Fortaleza EC 2+ goals

43%

Fortaleza EC 3+ goals

18%

Criciuma 1+ goals

63%

Criciuma 2+ goals

26%

Criciuma 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Fortaleza EC (draw refunded)

65%

Criciuma (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortaleza EC at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.04 · 35 matches

Criciuma away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.53 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortaleza EC attack 1.40 + Criciuma defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.46

Criciuma attack 0.97 + Fortaleza EC defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Fortaleza EC scores more

48%

level

26%

Criciuma scores more

26%

Fortaleza EC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Fortaleza EC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

Moisés

Fortaleza EC · M

8.5

Match Events

13'

Titi

44'

Miguel Trauco

47'

Moisés↳ Yago Pikachu

65'

T. Pochettino← K. Andrade

65'

Breno Lopes← Moisés

69'

Lucas Sasha

76'

Marquinhos Gabriel

76'

Jonathan← Allano

76'

Arthur Caíke← Newton

77'

Pedro Augusto← Lucas Sasha

77'

Marinho← Renato Kayzer

84'

Bruno Pacheco← Felipe Jonatan

84'

Eliédson← Marquinhos Gabriel

84'

João Carlos← M. Trauco

90+5'

Marcelo Hermes

90+4'

Arthur Caíke

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FortalezaCriciuma

Overview

50%Possession50%

16Total Shots12

1.90Expected Goals (xG)0.93

4Corners6

16Fouls13

Shots

16Total Shots12

4On Target2

7Off Target7

5Blocked3

11Inside Box4

5Outside Box8

Passing

50%Possession50%

447Total Passes433

369Accurate Passes352

83%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

0.46Goals Prevented0.46

Discipline

16Fouls13

2Yellow Cards4

2Offsides1