Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fort William vs Vale of Leithen — FA Cup 2019

Fort William
Fort William
FT
5 – 0
Vale of Leithen
Vale of Leithen
9/21/2019FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundClaggan Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Fort William34%
×Draw17%
Vale of Leithen49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fort William
2.77
Vale of Leithen
3.29

Vale of Leithen creates 19% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Fort William
1.20
Vale of Leithen
1.17

allows per match

Fort William
5.40
Vale of Leithen
4.33

finishing

Fort William+0.00on par
Vale of Leithen+0.00on par

Total goals

94%Over
  • Over94
  • Under6

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

90%Yes
  • Yes90
  • No10

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fort William ↓

Vale of Leithen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–24%
1–34%
1–43%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–25%
3–35%
3–44%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–34%
4–43%

Most likely 2–3 (6%) · grid covers 70% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
94%6%3.5
84%16%4.5
70%30%

Double chance

Fort William or draw
51%
Fort William or Vale of Leithen
83%
Draw or Vale of Leithen
66%

Winning margin

Fort William wins by 2+
19%
Vale of Leithen wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Fort William 1+ goals
94%
Fort William 2+ goals
76%
Fort William 3+ goals
51%
Vale of Leithen 1+ goals
96%
Vale of Leithen 2+ goals
83%
Vale of Leithen 3+ goals
62%

Draw no bet

Fort William (draw refunded)
41%
Vale of Leithen (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
88%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fort William at home — creates 1.20, concedes 5.40 · 5 matches

Vale of Leithen away — creates 1.17, concedes 4.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fort William attack 1.20 + Vale of Leithen defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 2.77

Vale of Leithen attack 1.17 + Fort William defence 5.40 → ÷2 → 3.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Fort William scores more
34%
level
17%
Vale of Leithen scores more
49%

Vale of Leithen at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Vale of Leithen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fort William vs Vale of Leithen

Fort William beat Vale of Leithen 5-0 in FA Cup on September 21, 2019.

The match was played at Claggan Park in Fort William.