Fort William 0–8 Hill Of Beath Hawthorn

Fort William

0 – 8

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn

8/31/2024

FA Cup · 2nd Preliminary RoundClaggan Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Fort William8%

×Draw11%

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn81%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fort WilliamExpected goals in this matchHill Of Beath Hawthorn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

3.70

Fort William

1.17

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn

3.70

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn creates 216% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

1.20

creates per match

2.00

5.40

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Fort William

1.20

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn

2.00

allows per match

Fort William

5.40

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fort William+0.00on par

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fort William ↓

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn →

0–01%

0–13%

0–26%

0–37%

0–47%

1–01%

1–14%

1–27%

1–38%

1–48%

2–01%

2–12%

2–24%

2–35%

2–44%

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–42%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

69%31%4.5

49%51%

Double chance

Fort William or draw

19%

Fort William or Hill Of Beath Hawthorn

89%

Draw or Hill Of Beath Hawthorn

92%

Winning margin

Fort William wins by 2+

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn wins by 2+

64%

Team goals

Fort William 1+ goals

69%

Fort William 2+ goals

33%

Fort William 3+ goals

11%

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn 1+ goals

97%

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn 2+ goals

87%

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn 3+ goals

69%

Draw no bet

Fort William (draw refunded)

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn (draw refunded)

91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Fort William at home — creates 1.20, concedes 5.40 · 5 matches

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Fort William attack 1.20 + Hill Of Beath Hawthorn defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.17

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn attack 2.00 + Fort William defence 5.40 → ÷2 → 3.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 81%?"

Fort William scores more

level

11%

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn scores more

81%

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Hill Of Beath Hawthorn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff