Fort William 0–4 Benburb: Result & Stats | FA Cup

Fort William

0 – 4

Benburb

8/27/2022

FA Cup · 1st Preliminary RoundClaggan Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Fort William7%

×Draw10%

Benburb82%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fort WilliamExpected goals in this matchBenburb

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

3.70

Fort William

1.10

Benburb

3.70

Benburb creates 236% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

1.20

creates per match

2.00

5.40

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Fort William

1.20

Benburb

2.00

allows per match

Fort William

5.40

Benburb

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fort William+0.00on par

Benburb+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fort William ↓

Benburb →

0–01%

0–13%

0–26%

0–38%

0–47%

1–01%

1–14%

1–27%

1–38%

1–48%

2–01%

2–12%

2–24%

2–35%

2–44%

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–32%

3–42%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (8%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

84%16%3.5

68%32%4.5

48%52%

Double chance

Fort William or draw

18%

Fort William or Benburb

90%

Draw or Benburb

93%

Winning margin

Fort William wins by 2+

Benburb wins by 2+

66%

Team goals

Fort William 1+ goals

67%

Fort William 2+ goals

30%

Fort William 3+ goals

10%

Benburb 1+ goals

97%

Benburb 2+ goals

87%

Benburb 3+ goals

69%

Draw no bet

Fort William (draw refunded)

Benburb (draw refunded)

92%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Fort William at home — creates 1.20, concedes 5.40 · 5 matches

Benburb away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Fort William attack 1.20 + Benburb defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Benburb attack 2.00 + Fort William defence 5.40 → ÷2 → 3.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 82%?"

Fort William scores more

level

10%

Benburb scores more

82%

Benburb at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Benburb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff