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Fort Wayne vs Lexington II — USL League Two 2026

Fort Wayne
Fort Wayne
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lexington II
Lexington II
6/18/2025USL League TwoUSL League Two · Central Conference - 11Bishop John D’Arcy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Fort Wayne52%
×Draw25%
Lexington II24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fort Wayne
1.63
Lexington II
1.02

Fort Wayne creates 60% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Fort Wayne
2.43
Lexington II
1.33

allows per match

Fort Wayne
0.71
Lexington II
0.83

finishing

Fort Wayne+0.00on par
Lexington II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fort Wayne ↓

Lexington II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Fort Wayne or draw
76%
Fort Wayne or Lexington II
75%
Draw or Lexington II
48%

Winning margin

Fort Wayne wins by 2+
27%
Lexington II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Fort Wayne 1+ goals
80%
Fort Wayne 2+ goals
48%
Fort Wayne 3+ goals
22%
Lexington II 1+ goals
64%
Lexington II 2+ goals
27%
Lexington II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Fort Wayne (draw refunded)
68%
Lexington II (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fort Wayne at home — creates 2.43, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Lexington II away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fort Wayne attack 2.43 + Lexington II defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.63

Lexington II attack 1.33 + Fort Wayne defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Fort Wayne scores more
52%
level
25%
Lexington II scores more
24%

Fort Wayne at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Fort Wayne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fort Wayne vs Lexington II

Fort Wayne beat Lexington II 2-0 in USL League Two on June 18, 2025.

The match was played at Bishop John D’Arcy Stadium in Fort Wayne, Indiana.