Forres Mechanics 1–2 Jeanfield Swifts

Forres Mechanics

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Jeanfield Swifts

Unknown 85', 45'

9/28/2024

FA Cup · 1st RoundMosset Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Forres Mechanics14%

×Draw17%

Jeanfield Swifts69%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Forres MechanicsExpected goals in this matchJeanfield Swifts

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

2.52

Forres Mechanics

1.05

Jeanfield Swifts

2.52

Jeanfield Swifts creates 140% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

0.67

creates per match

2.71

2.33

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Forres Mechanics

0.67

Jeanfield Swifts

2.71

allows per match

Forres Mechanics

2.33

Jeanfield Swifts

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Forres Mechanics+0.00on par

Jeanfield Swifts+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forres Mechanics ↓

Jeanfield Swifts →

0–03%

0–17%

0–29%

0–38%

0–45%

1–03%

1–18%

1–210%

1–38%

1–45%

2–02%

2–14%

2–25%

2–34%

2–43%

3–01%

3–11%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Forres Mechanics or draw

31%

Forres Mechanics or Jeanfield Swifts

83%

Draw or Jeanfield Swifts

86%

Winning margin

Forres Mechanics wins by 2+

Jeanfield Swifts wins by 2+

47%

Team goals

Forres Mechanics 1+ goals

65%

Forres Mechanics 2+ goals

28%

Forres Mechanics 3+ goals

Jeanfield Swifts 1+ goals

92%

Jeanfield Swifts 2+ goals

71%

Jeanfield Swifts 3+ goals

45%

Draw no bet

Forres Mechanics (draw refunded)

17%

Jeanfield Swifts (draw refunded)

83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Forres Mechanics at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

Jeanfield Swifts away — creates 2.71, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Forres Mechanics attack 0.67 + Jeanfield Swifts defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.05

Jeanfield Swifts attack 2.71 + Forres Mechanics defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 69%?"

Forres Mechanics scores more

14%

level

17%

Jeanfield Swifts scores more

69%

Jeanfield Swifts at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Jeanfield Swifts will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

85'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff