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Forres Mechanics vs Glasgow University — FA Cup 2019

Forres Mechanics
Forres Mechanics
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Glasgow University
Glasgow University
9/17/2022FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundMosset Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Forres Mechanics59%
×Draw19%
Glasgow University22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Forres Mechanics
2.42
Glasgow University
1.42

Forres Mechanics creates 70% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Forres Mechanics
0.67
Glasgow University
0.50

allows per match

Forres Mechanics
2.33
Glasgow University
4.17

finishing

Forres Mechanics+0.00on par
Glasgow University+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forres Mechanics ↓

Glasgow University →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Forres Mechanics or draw
78%
Forres Mechanics or Glasgow University
81%
Draw or Glasgow University
41%

Winning margin

Forres Mechanics wins by 2+
38%
Glasgow University wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Forres Mechanics 1+ goals
91%
Forres Mechanics 2+ goals
69%
Forres Mechanics 3+ goals
43%
Glasgow University 1+ goals
76%
Glasgow University 2+ goals
41%
Glasgow University 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Forres Mechanics (draw refunded)
73%
Glasgow University (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forres Mechanics at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

Glasgow University away — creates 0.50, concedes 4.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forres Mechanics attack 0.67 + Glasgow University defence 4.17 → ÷2 → 2.42

Glasgow University attack 0.50 + Forres Mechanics defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Forres Mechanics scores more
59%
level
19%
Glasgow University scores more
22%

Forres Mechanics at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Forres Mechanics will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Forres Mechanics vs Glasgow University

Glasgow University beat Forres Mechanics 3-2 in FA Cup on September 17, 2022.

The match was played at Mosset Park in Forres.