Forres Mechanics 0–2 Caledonian Braves

Forres Mechanics

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Caledonian Braves

9/27/2025

FA Cup · 1st RoundMosset Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Forres Mechanics26%

×Draw23%

Caledonian Braves51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Forres MechanicsExpected goals in this matchCaledonian Braves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.83

Forres Mechanics

1.25

Caledonian Braves

1.83

Caledonian Braves creates 46% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

0.67

creates per match

1.33

2.33

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Forres Mechanics

0.67

Caledonian Braves

1.33

allows per match

Forres Mechanics

2.33

Caledonian Braves

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Forres Mechanics+0.00on par

Caledonian Braves+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forres Mechanics ↓

Caledonian Braves →

0–05%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Forres Mechanics or draw

49%

Forres Mechanics or Caledonian Braves

77%

Draw or Caledonian Braves

74%

Winning margin

Forres Mechanics wins by 2+

11%

Caledonian Braves wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Forres Mechanics 1+ goals

71%

Forres Mechanics 2+ goals

36%

Forres Mechanics 3+ goals

13%

Caledonian Braves 1+ goals

84%

Caledonian Braves 2+ goals

54%

Caledonian Braves 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Forres Mechanics (draw refunded)

34%

Caledonian Braves (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Forres Mechanics at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

Caledonian Braves away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Forres Mechanics attack 0.67 + Caledonian Braves defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.25

Caledonian Braves attack 1.33 + Forres Mechanics defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Forres Mechanics scores more

26%

level

23%

Caledonian Braves scores more

51%

Caledonian Braves at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Caledonian Braves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Forres

Caledonian

Manager: Steven Macdonald

Manager: Ricky Waddell