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Forres Mechanics vs Brechin — League #730 2026

Forres Mechanics
Forres Mechanics
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Brechin
Brechin
4/1/2026League #730League #730

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Forres Mechanics4%
×Draw11%
Brechin85%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Forres Mechanics
0.49
Brechin
2.88

Brechin creates 488% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

creates per match

Forres Mechanics
0.29
Brechin
1.62

allows per match

Forres Mechanics
4.14
Brechin
0.69

finishing

Forres Mechanics+0.00on par
Brechin+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forres Mechanics ↓

Brechin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–110%
0–215%
0–314%
0–410%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–22%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (15%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Forres Mechanics or draw
15%
Forres Mechanics or Brechin
89%
Draw or Brechin
96%

Winning margin

Forres Mechanics wins by 2+
1%
Brechin wins by 2+
66%

Team goals

Forres Mechanics 1+ goals
39%
Forres Mechanics 2+ goals
9%
Forres Mechanics 3+ goals
1%
Brechin 1+ goals
94%
Brechin 2+ goals
78%
Brechin 3+ goals
54%

Draw no bet

Forres Mechanics (draw refunded)
5%
Brechin (draw refunded)
95%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forres Mechanics at home — creates 0.29, concedes 4.14 · 7 matches

Brechin away — creates 1.62, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forres Mechanics attack 0.29 + Brechin defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.49

Brechin attack 1.62 + Forres Mechanics defence 4.14 → ÷2 → 2.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Forres Mechanics scores more
4%
level
11%
Brechin scores more
85%

Brechin at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Brechin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #730: Forres Mechanics 0–1 Brechin

Brechin beat Forres Mechanics 1-0 in League #730 on April 1, 2026.