Forres Mechanics 0–2 Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

Forres Mechanics

0 – 2

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

9/18/2021

FA Cup · 1st RoundMosset Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Forres Mechanics22%

×Draw23%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Forres MechanicsExpected goals in this matchBonnyrigg Rose Athletic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.83

Forres Mechanics

1.05

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

1.83

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic creates 74% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

0.67

creates per match

1.33

2.33

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Forres Mechanics

0.67

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

1.33

allows per match

Forres Mechanics

2.33

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Forres Mechanics+0.00on par

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forres Mechanics ↓

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic →

0–06%

0–110%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Forres Mechanics or draw

44%

Forres Mechanics or Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

77%

Draw or Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

78%

Winning margin

Forres Mechanics wins by 2+

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Forres Mechanics 1+ goals

65%

Forres Mechanics 2+ goals

28%

Forres Mechanics 3+ goals

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 1+ goals

84%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 2+ goals

54%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Forres Mechanics (draw refunded)

28%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Forres Mechanics at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Forres Mechanics attack 0.67 + Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.05

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic attack 1.33 + Forres Mechanics defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 56%?"

Forres Mechanics scores more

22%

level

23%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic scores more

56%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff