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Formentera vs San Rafael — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Formentera
Formentera
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
San Rafael
San Rafael
9/1/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 2Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Formentera54%
×Draw25%
San Rafael21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Formentera
1.60
San Rafael
0.88

Formentera creates 82% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 47 away

creates per match

Formentera
1.67
San Rafael
0.94

allows per match

Formentera
0.82
San Rafael
1.53

finishing

Formentera+0.00on par
San Rafael+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Formentera ↓

San Rafael →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Formentera or draw
79%
Formentera or San Rafael
75%
Draw or San Rafael
46%

Winning margin

Formentera wins by 2+
29%
San Rafael wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Formentera 1+ goals
80%
Formentera 2+ goals
47%
Formentera 3+ goals
22%
San Rafael 1+ goals
59%
San Rafael 2+ goals
22%
San Rafael 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Formentera (draw refunded)
72%
San Rafael (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Formentera at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.82 · 60 matches

San Rafael away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.53 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Formentera attack 1.67 + San Rafael defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.60

San Rafael attack 0.94 + Formentera defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Formentera scores more
54%
level
25%
San Rafael scores more
21%

Formentera at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Formentera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Formentera vs San Rafael

Formentera beat San Rafael 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on September 1, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal in Sant Francesc de Formentera.