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Formentera vs Mercadal — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Formentera
Formentera
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Mercadal
Mercadal
4/26/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 32Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Formentera55%
×Draw25%
Mercadal20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Formentera
1.56
Mercadal
0.83

Formentera creates 88% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 86 away

creates per match

Formentera
1.67
Mercadal
0.84

allows per match

Formentera
0.82
Mercadal
1.45

finishing

Formentera+0.00on par
Mercadal+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Formentera ↓

Mercadal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Formentera or draw
80%
Formentera or Mercadal
75%
Draw or Mercadal
45%

Winning margin

Formentera wins by 2+
29%
Mercadal wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Formentera 1+ goals
79%
Formentera 2+ goals
46%
Formentera 3+ goals
21%
Mercadal 1+ goals
56%
Mercadal 2+ goals
20%
Mercadal 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Formentera (draw refunded)
73%
Mercadal (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Formentera at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.82 · 60 matches

Mercadal away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.45 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Formentera attack 1.67 + Mercadal defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.56

Mercadal attack 0.84 + Formentera defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Formentera scores more
55%
level
25%
Mercadal scores more
20%

Formentera at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Formentera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Formentera 4–0 Mercadal

Formentera beat Mercadal 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on April 26, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal in Sant Francesc de Formentera.