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Formentera vs Ferriolense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Formentera
Formentera
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Ferriolense
Ferriolense
2/2/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 22Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Formentera58%
×Draw23%
Ferriolense19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Formentera
1.81
Ferriolense
0.93

Formentera creates 95% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 28 away

creates per match

Formentera
1.67
Ferriolense
1.04

allows per match

Formentera
0.82
Ferriolense
1.96

finishing

Formentera+0.00on par
Ferriolense+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Formentera ↓

Ferriolense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Formentera or draw
81%
Formentera or Ferriolense
77%
Draw or Ferriolense
42%

Winning margin

Formentera wins by 2+
33%
Ferriolense wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Formentera 1+ goals
84%
Formentera 2+ goals
54%
Formentera 3+ goals
27%
Ferriolense 1+ goals
61%
Ferriolense 2+ goals
24%
Ferriolense 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Formentera (draw refunded)
75%
Ferriolense (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Formentera at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.82 · 60 matches

Ferriolense away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.96 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Formentera attack 1.67 + Ferriolense defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.81

Ferriolense attack 1.04 + Formentera defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Formentera scores more
58%
level
23%
Ferriolense scores more
19%

Formentera at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Formentera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Formentera 2–1 Ferriolense

Formentera beat Ferriolense 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on February 2, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal in Sant Francesc de Formentera.