Formartine United 3–2 Threave Rovers

Formartine United

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Threave Rovers

9/23/2023

FA Cup · 1st RoundNorth Lodge Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Formartine United33%

×Draw21%

Threave Rovers46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Formartine UnitedExpected goals in this matchThreave Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

2.14

Formartine United

1.80

Threave Rovers

2.14

Threave Rovers creates 19% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

1.50

creates per match

2.11

2.17

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Formartine United

1.50

Threave Rovers

2.11

allows per match

Formartine United

2.17

Threave Rovers

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Formartine United+0.00on par

Threave Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Formartine United ↓

Threave Rovers →

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Formartine United or draw

54%

Formartine United or Threave Rovers

79%

Draw or Threave Rovers

67%

Winning margin

Formartine United wins by 2+

17%

Threave Rovers wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Formartine United 1+ goals

83%

Formartine United 2+ goals

54%

Formartine United 3+ goals

27%

Threave Rovers 1+ goals

88%

Threave Rovers 2+ goals

63%

Threave Rovers 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Formartine United (draw refunded)

42%

Threave Rovers (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Formartine United at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.17 · 12 matches

Threave Rovers away — creates 2.11, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Formartine United attack 1.50 + Threave Rovers defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.80

Threave Rovers attack 2.11 + Formartine United defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Formartine United scores more

33%

level

21%

Threave Rovers scores more

46%

Threave Rovers at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Threave Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff