Formartine United 1–3 Stenhousemuir: Result & Stats

Formartine United

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Stenhousemuir

J. Wade 90+1'

M. Yates 90+2'

A. Brown 84'

A. Norris 50' (OG)

11/26/2022

FA Cup · 3rd RoundNorth Lodge Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Formartine United28%

×Draw22%

Stenhousemuir50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Formartine UnitedExpected goals in this matchStenhousemuir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.98

Formartine United

1.45

Stenhousemuir

1.98

Stenhousemuir creates 37% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 5 away

1.50

creates per match

1.80

2.17

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Formartine United

1.50

Stenhousemuir

1.80

allows per match

Formartine United

2.17

Stenhousemuir

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Formartine United+0.00on par

Stenhousemuir+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Formartine United ↓

Stenhousemuir →

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Formartine United or draw

50%

Formartine United or Stenhousemuir

78%

Draw or Stenhousemuir

72%

Winning margin

Formartine United wins by 2+

13%

Stenhousemuir wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Formartine United 1+ goals

77%

Formartine United 2+ goals

42%

Formartine United 3+ goals

18%

Stenhousemuir 1+ goals

86%

Stenhousemuir 2+ goals

59%

Stenhousemuir 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Formartine United (draw refunded)

36%

Stenhousemuir (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Formartine United at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.17 · 12 matches

Stenhousemuir away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Formartine United attack 1.50 + Stenhousemuir defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.45

Stenhousemuir attack 1.80 + Formartine United defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Formartine United scores more

28%

level

22%

Stenhousemuir scores more

50%

Stenhousemuir at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Stenhousemuir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'

A. NorrisOwn goal

63'

R. Philp

69'

G. Rodger← J. Smith

76'

A. Brown← W. Sewell

77'

S. Walker← E. OReilly

79'

M. McLean

84'

A. Brown↳ M. Anderson

85'

C. Anderson← A. Norris

87'

D. Higgins

90+1'

J. Wade

90+2'

M. Yates↳ T. Orr

Formartine

Stenhousemuir

▼

⚽

▼

🥅

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: S. Anderson

69'▲G. Rodger←▼J. Smith

85'▲C. Anderson←▼A. Norris

Formartine United substitutes

12Rodger15Anderson14Dimov16Addison17Alberts21Watson18Anderson

Manager: S. Swift

76'▲A. Brown←▼W. Sewell

77'▲S. Walker←▼E. OReilly

Stenhousemuir substitutes

11Brown2Walker15Corbett18Joseph1Brennan7Forbes