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Formartine United vs Cumnock Juniors — FA Cup 2019

Formartine United
Formartine United
FT
2 – 2
Cumnock Juniors
Cumnock Juniors
9/18/2021FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundNorth Lodge Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Formartine United28%
×Draw21%
Cumnock Juniors51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Formartine United
1.58
Cumnock Juniors
2.17

Cumnock Juniors creates 37% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 6 away

creates per match

Formartine United
1.50
Cumnock Juniors
2.17

allows per match

Formartine United
2.17
Cumnock Juniors
1.67

finishing

Formartine United+0.00on par
Cumnock Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Formartine United ↓

Cumnock Juniors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Formartine United or draw
49%
Formartine United or Cumnock Juniors
79%
Draw or Cumnock Juniors
72%

Winning margin

Formartine United wins by 2+
13%
Cumnock Juniors wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Formartine United 1+ goals
79%
Formartine United 2+ goals
47%
Formartine United 3+ goals
21%
Cumnock Juniors 1+ goals
89%
Cumnock Juniors 2+ goals
64%
Cumnock Juniors 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Formartine United (draw refunded)
36%
Cumnock Juniors (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Formartine United at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.17 · 12 matches

Cumnock Juniors away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Formartine United attack 1.50 + Cumnock Juniors defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.58

Cumnock Juniors attack 2.17 + Formartine United defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Formartine United scores more
28%
level
21%
Cumnock Juniors scores more
51%

Cumnock Juniors at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Cumnock Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Formartine United 2–2 Cumnock Juniors

Formartine United and Cumnock Juniors drew 2-2 in FA Cup on September 18, 2021.

The match was played at North Lodge Park in Pitmedden.