Formartine United 1–1 Annan Athletic

Formartine United

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Annan Athletic

C. Gethins 120+9' (pen)

S. Anderson 120+5' (pen)

A. Greig 120+3' (pen)

S. Smith 17'

C. Clark 120+4' (pen)

A. Smith 9'

3/23/2021

FA Cup · 2nd RoundNorth Lodge Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Formartine United38%

×Draw21%

Annan Athletic41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Formartine UnitedExpected goals in this matchAnnan Athletic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.96

Formartine United

1.88

Annan Athletic

1.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 8 away

1.50

creates per match

1.75

2.17

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Formartine United

1.50

Annan Athletic

1.75

allows per match

Formartine United

2.17

Annan Athletic

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Formartine United+0.00on par

Annan Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Formartine United ↓

Annan Athletic →

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Formartine United or draw

59%

Formartine United or Annan Athletic

79%

Draw or Annan Athletic

62%

Winning margin

Formartine United wins by 2+

20%

Annan Athletic wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Formartine United 1+ goals

85%

Formartine United 2+ goals

56%

Formartine United 3+ goals

29%

Annan Athletic 1+ goals

86%

Annan Athletic 2+ goals

58%

Annan Athletic 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Formartine United (draw refunded)

48%

Annan Athletic (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Formartine United at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.17 · 12 matches

Annan Athletic away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Formartine United attack 1.50 + Annan Athletic defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.88

Annan Athletic attack 1.75 + Formartine United defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Formartine United scores more

38%

level

21%

Annan Athletic scores more

41%

Annan Athletic at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Annan Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

A. Smith↳ T. Wallace

11'

A. McCraw

17'

S. Smith↳ J. Crawford

46'

R. Love← J. Lowdon

58'

A. Smith

61'

I. Anderson← M. Wright

68'

A. Greig← A. Norris

69'

T. Wallace

76'

M. Docherty← A. McCaw

77'

R. Graeme

79'

S. Lisle← D. Park

90'

C. Gethins← G. Wood

101'

R. Currie← T. Wallace

120+1'

G. RodgerMissed penalty

120+2'

M. DochertyMissed penalty

120+3'

A. GreigPenalty

120+4'

C. ClarkPenalty

120+5'

S. AndersonPenalty

120+6'

K. FlemingMissed penalty

120+7'

S. LisleMissed penalty

120+8'

L. HunterMissed penalty

120+9'

C. GethinsPenalty

Formartine

Annan

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⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: P. Lawson

68'▲A. Greig←▼A. Norris

79'▲S. Lisle←▼D. Park

90'▲C. Gethins←▼G. Wood

Formartine United substitutes

16Greig19Lisle18Gethins17Anderson15Lawrence12Fraser14Lawson21MacDonald

Manager: P. Murphy

46'▲R. Love←▼J. Lowdon

61'▲I. Anderson←▼M. Wright

76'▲M. Docherty←▼A. McCaw

101'▲R. Currie←▼T. Wallace

Annan Athletic substitutes

14Love16Anderson15Docherty19Currie18Emerson12Mitchell

Match Recap: Formartine United vs Annan Athletic

Formartine United and Annan Athletic drew 1-1 in FA Cup on March 23, 2021.

Goals: A. Smith (9'), S. Smith (17'), A. Greig (120+3' pen), C. Clark (120+4' pen), S. Anderson (120+5' pen), C. Gethins (120+9' pen).

The match was played at North Lodge Park in Pitmedden.

Formartine United vs Annan Athletic — FA Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Formartine United vs Annan Athletic