Forge 0–0 Tigres UANL: Result & Stats

Forge

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tigres UANL

2/4/2026

CONCACAF Champions League · Round of 32Hamilton Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Forge22%

×Draw32%

Tigres UANL46%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ForgeExpected goals in this matchTigres UANL

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.66

1.11

Forge

0.66

Tigres UANL

1.11

Tigres UANL creates 68% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 18 away

0.25

creates per match

0.72

1.50

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Forge

0.25

Tigres UANL

0.72

allows per match

Forge

1.50

Tigres UANL

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Forge+0.00on par

Tigres UANL+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forge ↓

Tigres UANL →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–119%

0–210%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–14%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Forge or draw

54%

Forge or Tigres UANL

68%

Draw or Tigres UANL

78%

Winning margin

Forge wins by 2+

6%

Tigres UANL wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Forge 1+ goals

48%

Forge 2+ goals

14%

Forge 3+ goals

3%

Tigres UANL 1+ goals

67%

Tigres UANL 2+ goals

30%

Tigres UANL 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Forge (draw refunded)

32%

Tigres UANL (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forge at home — creates 0.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Tigres UANL away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forge attack 0.25 + Tigres UANL defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.66

Tigres UANL attack 0.72 + Forge defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Forge scores more

22%

level

32%

Tigres UANL scores more

46%

Tigres UANL at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tigres UANL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

D. Bertaud

Forge · G

9.0

Match Events

46'

O. Herrera← D. Lainez

46'

I. Lopez← A. Gignac

48'

Ismael Oketokoun

60'

B. Wright← I. Oketokoun

61'

A. Aromatario← M. Babouli

61'

A. Correa← J. Garza

66'

Juan BrunettaGoal cancelled

74'

N. Jensen← T. Borges

74'

M. Filion← H. Massunda

75'

O. Rodriguez← J. Vigon

75'

D. A. Sanchez Guevara← M. Flores

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ForgeTigres

Overview

33%Possession67%

10Total Shots20

0.85Expected Goals (xG)1.65

4Corners8

11Fouls12

Shots

10Total Shots20

3On Target7

4Off Target6

3Blocked7

5Inside Box14

5Outside Box6

Passing

33%Possession67%

302Total Passes628

215Accurate Passes546

71%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

7Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls12

1Yellow Cards0

0Offsides1