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Forfar Athletic vs Stenhousemuir — League Two 2018

Forfar Athletic
Forfar Athletic
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Stenhousemuir
Stenhousemuir
3/16/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 29Station Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Forfar Athletic39%
×Draw27%
Stenhousemuir34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Forfar Athletic
1.33
Stenhousemuir
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 78 away

creates per match

Forfar Athletic
1.32
Stenhousemuir
1.28

allows per match

Forfar Athletic
1.18
Stenhousemuir
1.33

finishing

Forfar Athletic+0.00on par
Stenhousemuir+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forfar Athletic ↓

Stenhousemuir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Forfar Athletic or draw
66%
Forfar Athletic or Stenhousemuir
73%
Draw or Stenhousemuir
61%

Winning margin

Forfar Athletic wins by 2+
18%
Stenhousemuir wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Forfar Athletic 1+ goals
74%
Forfar Athletic 2+ goals
38%
Forfar Athletic 3+ goals
15%
Stenhousemuir 1+ goals
71%
Stenhousemuir 2+ goals
35%
Stenhousemuir 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Forfar Athletic (draw refunded)
53%
Stenhousemuir (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forfar Athletic at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.18 · 90 matches

Stenhousemuir away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.33 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forfar Athletic attack 1.32 + Stenhousemuir defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Stenhousemuir attack 1.28 + Forfar Athletic defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Forfar Athletic scores more
39%
level
27%
Stenhousemuir scores more
34%

Forfar Athletic at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Forfar Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Forfar Athletic 1–1 Stenhousemuir

Forfar Athletic and Stenhousemuir drew 1-1 in League Two on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Station Park in Forfar.