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Forfar Athletic vs Peterhead — League Two 2018

Forfar Athletic
Forfar Athletic
FT
3 – 3
HT: 3 – 0
Peterhead
Peterhead
2/17/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 25Station Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Forfar Athletic35%
×Draw26%
Peterhead39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Forfar Athletic
1.27
Peterhead
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 54 away

creates per match

Forfar Athletic
1.32
Peterhead
1.52

allows per match

Forfar Athletic
1.18
Peterhead
1.22

finishing

Forfar Athletic+0.00on par
Peterhead+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forfar Athletic ↓

Peterhead →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Forfar Athletic or draw
61%
Forfar Athletic or Peterhead
74%
Draw or Peterhead
65%

Winning margin

Forfar Athletic wins by 2+
15%
Peterhead wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Forfar Athletic 1+ goals
72%
Forfar Athletic 2+ goals
36%
Forfar Athletic 3+ goals
14%
Peterhead 1+ goals
74%
Peterhead 2+ goals
39%
Peterhead 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Forfar Athletic (draw refunded)
47%
Peterhead (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forfar Athletic at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.18 · 90 matches

Peterhead away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.22 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forfar Athletic attack 1.32 + Peterhead defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.27

Peterhead attack 1.52 + Forfar Athletic defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Forfar Athletic scores more
35%
level
26%
Peterhead scores more
39%

Peterhead at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Peterhead will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Forfar Athletic 3–3 Peterhead

Forfar Athletic and Peterhead drew 3-3 in League Two on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at Station Park in Forfar.