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Forfar Athletic vs Livingston — League Cup 2018

Forfar Athletic
Forfar Athletic
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Livingston
Livingston
8/17/2019League CupLeague Cup · 2nd RoundStation Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Forfar Athletic24%
×Draw23%
Livingston53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Forfar Athletic
1.15
Livingston
1.83

Livingston creates 59% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 18 away

creates per match

Forfar Athletic
1.36
Livingston
2.22

allows per match

Forfar Athletic
1.43
Livingston
0.94

finishing

Forfar Athletic+0.00on par
Livingston+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forfar Athletic ↓

Livingston →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Forfar Athletic or draw
47%
Forfar Athletic or Livingston
77%
Draw or Livingston
76%

Winning margin

Forfar Athletic wins by 2+
9%
Livingston wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Forfar Athletic 1+ goals
68%
Forfar Athletic 2+ goals
32%
Forfar Athletic 3+ goals
11%
Livingston 1+ goals
84%
Livingston 2+ goals
54%
Livingston 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Forfar Athletic (draw refunded)
31%
Livingston (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forfar Athletic at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

Livingston away — creates 2.22, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forfar Athletic attack 1.36 + Livingston defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.15

Livingston attack 2.22 + Forfar Athletic defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Forfar Athletic scores more
24%
level
23%
Livingston scores more
53%

Livingston at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Livingston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Forfar Athletic vs Livingston

Livingston beat Forfar Athletic 2-1 in League Cup on August 17, 2019.

The match was played at Station Park in Forfar.