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Forfar Athletic vs Hamilton Academical — League Cup 2018

Forfar Athletic
Forfar Athletic
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Hamilton Academical
Hamilton Academical
7/16/2022League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 4Station Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Forfar Athletic28%
×Draw24%
Hamilton Academical47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Forfar Athletic
1.22
Hamilton Academical
1.65

Hamilton Academical creates 35% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 15 away

creates per match

Forfar Athletic
1.36
Hamilton Academical
1.87

allows per match

Forfar Athletic
1.43
Hamilton Academical
1.07

finishing

Forfar Athletic+0.00on par
Hamilton Academical+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forfar Athletic ↓

Hamilton Academical →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Forfar Athletic or draw
53%
Forfar Athletic or Hamilton Academical
76%
Draw or Hamilton Academical
72%

Winning margin

Forfar Athletic wins by 2+
12%
Hamilton Academical wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Forfar Athletic 1+ goals
70%
Forfar Athletic 2+ goals
34%
Forfar Athletic 3+ goals
12%
Hamilton Academical 1+ goals
81%
Hamilton Academical 2+ goals
49%
Hamilton Academical 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Forfar Athletic (draw refunded)
37%
Hamilton Academical (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forfar Athletic at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

Hamilton Academical away — creates 1.87, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forfar Athletic attack 1.36 + Hamilton Academical defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.22

Hamilton Academical attack 1.87 + Forfar Athletic defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Forfar Athletic scores more
28%
level
24%
Hamilton Academical scores more
47%

Hamilton Academical at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Hamilton Academical will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Forfar Athletic vs Hamilton Academical

Hamilton Academical beat Forfar Athletic 3-0 in League Cup on July 16, 2022.

The match was played at Station Park in Forfar.