Forfar Athletic 1–0 Cowdenbeath: Result & Stats

Forfar Athletic

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cowdenbeath

7/15/2023

League Cup · Group Stage - 1Station Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Forfar Athletic58%

×Draw23%

Cowdenbeath19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Forfar AthleticExpected goals in this matchCowdenbeath

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

0.92

Forfar Athletic

1.78

Cowdenbeath

0.92

Forfar Athletic creates 93% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 10 away

1.36

creates per match

0.40

1.43

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Forfar Athletic

1.36

Cowdenbeath

0.40

allows per match

Forfar Athletic

1.43

Cowdenbeath

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Forfar Athletic+0.00on par

Cowdenbeath+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forfar Athletic ↓

Cowdenbeath →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Forfar Athletic or draw

81%

Forfar Athletic or Cowdenbeath

77%

Draw or Cowdenbeath

42%

Winning margin

Forfar Athletic wins by 2+

33%

Cowdenbeath wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Forfar Athletic 1+ goals

83%

Forfar Athletic 2+ goals

53%

Forfar Athletic 3+ goals

26%

Cowdenbeath 1+ goals

60%

Cowdenbeath 2+ goals

23%

Cowdenbeath 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Forfar Athletic (draw refunded)

75%

Cowdenbeath (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forfar Athletic at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

Cowdenbeath away — creates 0.40, concedes 2.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forfar Athletic attack 1.36 + Cowdenbeath defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.78

Cowdenbeath attack 0.40 + Forfar Athletic defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Forfar Athletic scores more

58%

level

23%

Cowdenbeath scores more

19%

Forfar Athletic at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Forfar Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff