Forfar Athletic 1–0 Berwick Rangers: Result & Stats

Forfar Athletic

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Berwick Rangers

A. Cocks 59'

10/26/2024

FA Cup · 2nd RoundAlpha Projects Stadium @ Station Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Forfar Athletic42%

×Draw27%

Berwick Rangers31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Forfar AthleticExpected goals in this matchBerwick Rangers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.10

Forfar Athletic

1.32

Berwick Rangers

1.10

Forfar Athletic creates 20% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

0.25

creates per match

1.20

1.00

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Forfar Athletic

0.25

Berwick Rangers

1.20

allows per match

Forfar Athletic

1.00

Berwick Rangers

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Forfar Athletic+0.00on par

Berwick Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forfar Athletic ↓

Berwick Rangers →

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Forfar Athletic or draw

69%

Forfar Athletic or Berwick Rangers

73%

Draw or Berwick Rangers

58%

Winning margin

Forfar Athletic wins by 2+

19%

Berwick Rangers wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Forfar Athletic 1+ goals

73%

Forfar Athletic 2+ goals

38%

Forfar Athletic 3+ goals

15%

Berwick Rangers 1+ goals

67%

Berwick Rangers 2+ goals

30%

Berwick Rangers 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Forfar Athletic (draw refunded)

57%

Berwick Rangers (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Forfar Athletic at home — creates 0.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Berwick Rangers away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Forfar Athletic attack 0.25 + Berwick Rangers defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.32

Berwick Rangers attack 1.20 + Forfar Athletic defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Forfar Athletic scores more

42%

level

27%

Berwick Rangers scores more

31%

Forfar Athletic at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Forfar Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

A. Cocks← B. Rodden

58'

J. Mylchreest← R. McLean

59'

A. Cocks↳ J. Skelly

64'

A. Laidlaw← M. Collins

80'

M. McGinley← K. OConnor

81'

C. McNamara← B. McCrystal

Forfar

Berwick

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: R. McKinnon

27'▲A. Cocks←▼B. Rodden

58'▲J. Mylchreest←▼R. McLean

Forfar Athletic substitutes

20Cocks18Mylchreest25Allan3Klimionek10Whatley23Mohammed21Paris

Manager: T. Scobbie

64'▲A. Laidlaw←▼M. Collins

80'▲M. McGinley←▼K. OConnor

81'▲C. McNamara←▼B. McCrystal

Berwick Rangers substitutes

19Laidlaw12McGinley14McNamara21Kay17Ashraf16Scott15Robinson18Brown