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Forest Rangers vs Mutondo Stars — Super League 2019

Forest Rangers
Forest Rangers
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mutondo Stars
Mutondo Stars
2/22/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 25Dola Hill Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Forest Rangers44%
×Draw33%
Mutondo Stars23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Forest Rangers
1.04
Mutondo Stars
0.65

Forest Rangers creates 60% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 51 away

creates per match

Forest Rangers
1.06
Mutondo Stars
0.53

allows per match

Forest Rangers
0.77
Mutondo Stars
1.02

finishing

Forest Rangers+0.00on par
Mutondo Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forest Rangers ↓

Mutondo Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
50%50%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Forest Rangers or draw
77%
Forest Rangers or Mutondo Stars
67%
Draw or Mutondo Stars
56%

Winning margin

Forest Rangers wins by 2+
18%
Mutondo Stars wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Forest Rangers 1+ goals
65%
Forest Rangers 2+ goals
28%
Forest Rangers 3+ goals
9%
Mutondo Stars 1+ goals
48%
Mutondo Stars 2+ goals
14%
Mutondo Stars 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Forest Rangers (draw refunded)
66%
Mutondo Stars (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forest Rangers at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.77 · 93 matches

Mutondo Stars away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.02 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forest Rangers attack 1.06 + Mutondo Stars defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.04

Mutondo Stars attack 0.53 + Forest Rangers defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Forest Rangers scores more
44%
level
33%
Mutondo Stars scores more
23%

Forest Rangers at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Forest Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Forest Rangers vs Mutondo Stars

Forest Rangers and Mutondo Stars drew 0-0 in Super League on February 22, 2025.

The match was played at Dola Hill Stadium in Ndola.