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Forest Rangers vs Green Eagles — Super League 2019

Forest Rangers
Forest Rangers
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Green Eagles
Green Eagles
11/28/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 13Dola Hill Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Forest Rangers39%
×Draw33%
Green Eagles29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Forest Rangers
1.00
Green Eagles
0.81

Forest Rangers creates 23% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 111 away

creates per match

Forest Rangers
1.06
Green Eagles
0.86

allows per match

Forest Rangers
0.77
Green Eagles
0.93

finishing

Forest Rangers+0.00on par
Green Eagles+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forest Rangers ↓

Green Eagles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Forest Rangers or draw
71%
Forest Rangers or Green Eagles
67%
Draw or Green Eagles
61%

Winning margin

Forest Rangers wins by 2+
15%
Green Eagles wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Forest Rangers 1+ goals
63%
Forest Rangers 2+ goals
26%
Forest Rangers 3+ goals
8%
Green Eagles 1+ goals
56%
Green Eagles 2+ goals
19%
Green Eagles 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Forest Rangers (draw refunded)
58%
Green Eagles (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forest Rangers at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.77 · 93 matches

Green Eagles away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.93 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forest Rangers attack 1.06 + Green Eagles defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.00

Green Eagles attack 0.86 + Forest Rangers defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Forest Rangers scores more
39%
level
33%
Green Eagles scores more
29%

Forest Rangers at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Forest Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Forest Rangers vs Green Eagles

Green Eagles beat Forest Rangers 1-0 in Super League on November 28, 2024.

The match was played at Dola Hill Stadium in Ndola.