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Forest Green vs Swindon Town — League Two 2018

Forest Green
Forest Green
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Swindon Town
Swindon Town
10/9/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 11The Fully Charged New Lawn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Forest Green37%
×Draw26%
Swindon Town37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Forest Green
1.30
Swindon Town
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 155 away

creates per match

Forest Green
1.17
Swindon Town
1.45

allows per match

Forest Green
1.15
Swindon Town
1.43

finishing

Forest Green+0.00on par
Swindon Town+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forest Green ↓

Swindon Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Forest Green or draw
63%
Forest Green or Swindon Town
74%
Draw or Swindon Town
63%

Winning margin

Forest Green wins by 2+
16%
Swindon Town wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Forest Green 1+ goals
73%
Forest Green 2+ goals
37%
Forest Green 3+ goals
14%
Swindon Town 1+ goals
73%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
37%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Forest Green (draw refunded)
50%
Swindon Town (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forest Green at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.15 · 110 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.43 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forest Green attack 1.17 + Swindon Town defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.30

Swindon Town attack 1.45 + Forest Green defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Forest Green scores more
37%
level
26%
Swindon Town scores more
37%

Forest Green at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Forest Green will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Forest Green 0–2 Swindon Town

Swindon Town beat Forest Green 2-0 in League Two on October 9, 2021.

The match was played at The Fully Charged New Lawn in Nailsworth, Gloucestershire.