Forest Green 2–2 Swindon Town: Result & Stats

Forest Green

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Swindon Town

J. Mills 90+5', 55'

E. Doyle 35', 16'

12/21/2019

League Two · Round 22The New Lawn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Forest Green36%

×Draw26%

Swindon Town38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Forest GreenExpected goals in this matchSwindon Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.35

Forest Green

1.32

Swindon Town

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 139 away

1.20

creates per match

1.49

1.22

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Forest Green

1.20

Swindon Town

1.49

allows per match

Forest Green

1.22

Swindon Town

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Forest Green+0.00on par

Swindon Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forest Green ↓

Swindon Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Forest Green or draw

62%

Forest Green or Swindon Town

74%

Draw or Swindon Town

64%

Winning margin

Forest Green wins by 2+

16%

Swindon Town wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Forest Green 1+ goals

73%

Forest Green 2+ goals

38%

Forest Green 3+ goals

15%

Swindon Town 1+ goals

74%

Swindon Town 2+ goals

39%

Swindon Town 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Forest Green (draw refunded)

49%

Swindon Town (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forest Green at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.22 · 90 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.45 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forest Green attack 1.20 + Swindon Town defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.32

Swindon Town attack 1.49 + Forest Green defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Forest Green scores more

36%

level

26%

Swindon Town scores more

38%

Swindon Town at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Swindon Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

J. Mills

Forest Green · D

8.1

Match Events

9'

Mathieu Baudry

16'

E. Doyle↳ R. Hunt

35'

E. Doyle↳ K. Woolery

46'

J. Morton← M. Stevens

55'

J. Mills

65'

A. Collins← E. Frear

76'

Carl Winchester

76'

N. McGinley← L. Kitching

77'

D. Rose← M. Doughty

90+3'

D. Jaiyesimi← K. Anderson

90+6'

E. Iandolo← K. Woolery

90+5'

J. Mills↳ E. Adams

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ForestSwindon

Overview

46%Possession54%

15Total Shots11

7Corners6

10Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots11

5On Target6

4Off Target3

6Blocked2

10Inside Box7

5Outside Box4

Passing

46%Possession54%

410Total Passes475

327Accurate Passes390

80%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls13

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides5