Forest Green 1–2 Salford City: Result & Stats

Forest Green

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Salford City

J. March 11'

M. O'Connor 55'

I. Touray 3'

1/18/2020

League Two · Round 28The New Lawn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Forest Green35%

×Draw27%

Salford City38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Forest GreenExpected goals in this matchSalford City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.27

Forest Green

1.20

Salford City

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 156 away

1.20

creates per match

1.31

1.22

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Forest Green

1.20

Salford City

1.31

allows per match

Forest Green

1.22

Salford City

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Forest Green+0.00on par

Salford City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forest Green ↓

Salford City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Forest Green or draw

62%

Forest Green or Salford City

73%

Draw or Salford City

65%

Winning margin

Forest Green wins by 2+

15%

Salford City wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Forest Green 1+ goals

70%

Forest Green 2+ goals

34%

Forest Green 3+ goals

12%

Salford City 1+ goals

72%

Salford City 2+ goals

36%

Salford City 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Forest Green (draw refunded)

48%

Salford City (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forest Green at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.22 · 90 matches

Salford City away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.20 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forest Green attack 1.20 + Salford City defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.20

Salford City attack 1.31 + Forest Green defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Forest Green scores more

35%

level

27%

Salford City scores more

38%

Salford City at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

M. O'Connor

Salford City · M

7.6

Match Events

3'

11'

14'

38'

46'

E. Frear← J. Aitchison

46'

Bruno Andrade← J. Jervis

55'

M. O'Connor

60'

A. Collins← J. Brown

63'

Richie Towell

67'

J. Baldwin← B. Thomas-Asante

75'

Richie Towell

75'

Richie Towell

76'

S. McCoulsky← J. March

79'

80'

90'

90'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ForestSalford

Overview

67%Possession33%

30Total Shots11

7Corners5

12Fouls18

Shots

30Total Shots11

5On Target3

12Off Target4

13Blocked4

15Inside Box6

15Outside Box5

Passing

67%Possession33%

543Total Passes253

438Accurate Passes135

81%Pass Accuracy53%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls18

1Yellow Cards6

0Red Cards2

1Offsides0