Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Forest Green vs Port Vale — League One 2018

Forest Green
Forest Green
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Port Vale
Port Vale
1/1/2023League OneLeague One · Round 25The Bolt New Lawn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Forest Green34%
×Draw27%
Port Vale39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Forest Green
1.20
Port Vale
1.32

Port Vale creates 10% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 72 away

creates per match

Forest Green
0.65
Port Vale
0.82

allows per match

Forest Green
1.83
Port Vale
1.75

finishing

Forest Green+0.00on par
Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forest Green ↓

Port Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Forest Green or draw
61%
Forest Green or Port Vale
73%
Draw or Port Vale
66%

Winning margin

Forest Green wins by 2+
14%
Port Vale wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Forest Green 1+ goals
70%
Forest Green 2+ goals
34%
Forest Green 3+ goals
12%
Port Vale 1+ goals
73%
Port Vale 2+ goals
38%
Port Vale 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Forest Green (draw refunded)
46%
Port Vale (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forest Green at home — creates 0.65, concedes 1.83 · 23 matches

Port Vale away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.75 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forest Green attack 0.65 + Port Vale defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.20

Port Vale attack 0.82 + Forest Green defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Forest Green scores more
34%
level
27%
Port Vale scores more
39%

Port Vale at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Forest Green vs Port Vale

Port Vale beat Forest Green 3-1 in League One on January 1, 2023.

The match was played at The Bolt New Lawn in Nailsworth, Gloucestershire.