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Forest Green vs Port Vale — League Two 2018

Forest Green
Forest Green
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Port Vale
Port Vale
2/11/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 33The New Lawn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Forest Green36%
×Draw28%
Port Vale35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Forest Green
1.17
Port Vale
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 118 away

creates per match

Forest Green
1.17
Port Vale
1.16

allows per match

Forest Green
1.15
Port Vale
1.17

finishing

Forest Green+0.00on par
Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forest Green ↓

Port Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Forest Green or draw
65%
Forest Green or Port Vale
72%
Draw or Port Vale
64%

Winning margin

Forest Green wins by 2+
15%
Port Vale wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Forest Green 1+ goals
69%
Forest Green 2+ goals
33%
Forest Green 3+ goals
11%
Port Vale 1+ goals
68%
Port Vale 2+ goals
32%
Port Vale 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Forest Green (draw refunded)
51%
Port Vale (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forest Green at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.15 · 110 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.17 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forest Green attack 1.17 + Port Vale defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.17

Port Vale attack 1.16 + Forest Green defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Forest Green scores more
36%
level
28%
Port Vale scores more
35%

Forest Green at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Forest Green will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Forest Green vs Port Vale

Port Vale beat Forest Green 3-2 in League Two on February 11, 2020.

The match was played at The New Lawn in Nailsworth, Gloucestershire.