Forest Green 1–0 Macclesfield: Result & Stats

Forest Green

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Macclesfield

F. Rawson 74'

12/29/2019

League Two · Round 24The New Lawn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Forest Green49%

×Draw26%

Macclesfield25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Forest GreenExpected goals in this matchMacclesfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

0.97

Forest Green

1.49

Macclesfield

0.97

Forest Green creates 54% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 18 away

1.20

creates per match

0.72

1.22

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Forest Green

1.20

Macclesfield

0.72

allows per match

Forest Green

1.22

Macclesfield

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Forest Green+0.00on par

Macclesfield+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forest Green ↓

Macclesfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Forest Green or draw

75%

Forest Green or Macclesfield

74%

Draw or Macclesfield

51%

Winning margin

Forest Green wins by 2+

25%

Macclesfield wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Forest Green 1+ goals

77%

Forest Green 2+ goals

44%

Forest Green 3+ goals

19%

Macclesfield 1+ goals

62%

Macclesfield 2+ goals

25%

Macclesfield 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Forest Green (draw refunded)

67%

Macclesfield (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forest Green at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.22 · 90 matches

Macclesfield away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forest Green attack 1.20 + Macclesfield defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.49

Macclesfield attack 0.72 + Forest Green defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Forest Green scores more

49%

level

26%

Macclesfield scores more

25%

Forest Green at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Forest Green will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

F. Rawson

Forest Green · D

7.6

Match Events

45'

Ebou Adams

46'

L. Kitching← M. Mills

58'

A. Collins← M. Stevens

59'

Corey O'Keeffe

69'

Elliott Frear

74'

F. Rawson↳ L. Shephard

81'

D. Fitzpatrick← N. Cameron

85'

J. Blyth← C. OKeefe

89'

K. Dawson← J. Aitchison

90'

Aaron Collins

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ForestMacclesfield

Overview

62%Possession38%

13Total Shots8

4Corners3

14Fouls20

Shots

13Total Shots8

5On Target2

2Off Target4

6Blocked2

4Inside Box3

9Outside Box5

Passing

62%Possession38%

406Total Passes238

310Accurate Passes137

76%Pass Accuracy58%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls20

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2