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Forest Green vs Crawley Town — League Two 2018

Forest Green
Forest Green
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Crawley Town
Crawley Town
10/28/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 16The Bolt New Lawn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Forest Green44%
×Draw27%
Crawley Town30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Forest Green
1.40
Crawley Town
1.11

Forest Green creates 26% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 158 away

creates per match

Forest Green
1.17
Crawley Town
1.08

allows per match

Forest Green
1.15
Crawley Town
1.63

finishing

Forest Green+0.00on par
Crawley Town+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forest Green ↓

Crawley Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Forest Green or draw
70%
Forest Green or Crawley Town
73%
Draw or Crawley Town
56%

Winning margin

Forest Green wins by 2+
21%
Crawley Town wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Forest Green 1+ goals
75%
Forest Green 2+ goals
41%
Forest Green 3+ goals
17%
Crawley Town 1+ goals
67%
Crawley Town 2+ goals
30%
Crawley Town 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Forest Green (draw refunded)
59%
Crawley Town (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forest Green at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.15 · 110 matches

Crawley Town away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.63 · 158 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forest Green attack 1.17 + Crawley Town defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.40

Crawley Town attack 1.08 + Forest Green defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Forest Green scores more
44%
level
27%
Crawley Town scores more
30%

Forest Green at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Forest Green will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Forest Green 2–1 Crawley Town

Forest Green beat Crawley Town 2-1 in League Two on October 28, 2023.

The match was played at The Bolt New Lawn in Nailsworth, Gloucestershire.