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Forest Green vs Cambridge United — League Two 2018

Forest Green
Forest Green
CANC
00:00
Cambridge United
Cambridge United
4/18/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 45The New Lawn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Forest Green34%
×Draw28%
Cambridge United38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Forest Green
1.13
Cambridge United
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 68 away

creates per match

Forest Green
1.20
Cambridge United
1.22

allows per match

Forest Green
1.22
Cambridge United
1.06

finishing

Forest Green+0.00on par
Cambridge United+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forest Green ↓

Cambridge United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Forest Green or draw
62%
Forest Green or Cambridge United
72%
Draw or Cambridge United
66%

Winning margin

Forest Green wins by 2+
14%
Cambridge United wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Forest Green 1+ goals
68%
Forest Green 2+ goals
31%
Forest Green 3+ goals
11%
Cambridge United 1+ goals
70%
Cambridge United 2+ goals
34%
Cambridge United 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Forest Green (draw refunded)
47%
Cambridge United (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forest Green at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.22 · 90 matches

Cambridge United away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.06 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forest Green attack 1.20 + Cambridge United defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.13

Cambridge United attack 1.22 + Forest Green defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Forest Green scores more
34%
level
28%
Cambridge United scores more
38%

Cambridge United at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Cambridge United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Forest Green face Cambridge United (League Two)

League Two returns with Forest Green hosting Cambridge United. Match starts April 18, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Forest Green host Cambridge United at The New Lawn.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.