Forest Green 2–0 Bristol Rovers: Result & Stats

Forest Green

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Bristol Rovers

J. Matt 77' (pen), 20'

11/27/2021

League Two · Round 19The Fully Charged New Lawn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Forest Green39%

×Draw27%

Bristol Rovers34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Forest GreenExpected goals in this matchBristol Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.22

Forest Green

1.31

Bristol Rovers

1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 59 away

1.20

creates per match

1.22

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Forest Green

1.20

Bristol Rovers

1.22

allows per match

Forest Green

1.22

Bristol Rovers

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Forest Green+0.00on par

Bristol Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forest Green ↓

Bristol Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Forest Green or draw

66%

Forest Green or Bristol Rovers

73%

Draw or Bristol Rovers

61%

Winning margin

Forest Green wins by 2+

17%

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Forest Green 1+ goals

73%

Forest Green 2+ goals

38%

Forest Green 3+ goals

14%

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

70%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

34%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Forest Green (draw refunded)

53%

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forest Green at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.22 · 90 matches

Bristol Rovers away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.42 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forest Green attack 1.20 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.31

Bristol Rovers attack 1.22 + Forest Green defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Forest Green scores more

39%

level

27%

Bristol Rovers scores more

34%

Forest Green at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Forest Green will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

N. Cadden

Forest Green · M

8.3

Match Events

20'

J. Matt↳ B. Stevenson

28'

41'

63'

63'

66'

D. Sweeney← M. Stevens

72'

A. Collins← G. Whelan

75'

L. Thomas← H. Anderson

77'

J. MattPenalty

78'

79'

80'

81'

90+6'

J. March← J. Aitchison

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ForestBristol

Overview

43%Possession57%

12Total Shots12

3Corners8

10Fouls16

Shots

12Total Shots12

4On Target2

5Off Target6

3Blocked4

9Inside Box4

3Outside Box8

Passing

43%Possession57%

309Total Passes418

185Accurate Passes285

60%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls16

3Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

3Offsides2