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Foolad FC vs Sepidrood Rasht — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Foolad FC
Foolad FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sepidrood Rasht
Sepidrood Rasht
11/10/2018Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 12Ghadir Stadium (Ahvāz (Ahwaz))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Foolad FC50%
×Draw29%
Sepidrood Rasht21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Foolad FC
1.28
Sepidrood Rasht
0.71

Foolad FC creates 80% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 15 away

creates per match

Foolad FC
1.03
Sepidrood Rasht
0.67

allows per match

Foolad FC
0.75
Sepidrood Rasht
1.53

finishing

Foolad FC+0.00on par
Sepidrood Rasht+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Foolad FC ↓

Sepidrood Rasht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Foolad FC or draw
79%
Foolad FC or Sepidrood Rasht
71%
Draw or Sepidrood Rasht
50%

Winning margin

Foolad FC wins by 2+
23%
Sepidrood Rasht wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Foolad FC 1+ goals
72%
Foolad FC 2+ goals
37%
Foolad FC 3+ goals
14%
Sepidrood Rasht 1+ goals
51%
Sepidrood Rasht 2+ goals
16%
Sepidrood Rasht 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Foolad FC (draw refunded)
71%
Sepidrood Rasht (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Foolad FC at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.75 · 115 matches

Sepidrood Rasht away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Foolad FC attack 1.03 + Sepidrood Rasht defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.28

Sepidrood Rasht attack 0.67 + Foolad FC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Foolad FC scores more
50%
level
29%
Sepidrood Rasht scores more
21%

Foolad FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Foolad FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persian Gulf Pro League: Foolad FC 0–1 Sepidrood Rasht

Sepidrood Rasht beat Foolad FC 1-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on November 10, 2018.

The match was played at Ghadir Stadium (Ahvāz (Ahwaz)).