Foolad FC 0–0 Sanat Naft: Result & Stats

Foolad FC

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sanat Naft

8/13/2022

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 1Shohadaye Foolad Khoozestan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Foolad FC45%

×Draw31%

Sanat Naft23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Foolad FCExpected goals in this matchSanat Naft

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.72

Foolad FC

1.13

Sanat Naft

0.72

Foolad FC creates 57% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 91 away

1.03

creates per match

0.69

0.75

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Foolad FC

1.03

Sanat Naft

0.69

allows per match

Foolad FC

0.75

Sanat Naft

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Foolad FC+0.00on par

Sanat Naft+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Foolad FC ↓

Sanat Naft →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Foolad FC or draw

77%

Foolad FC or Sanat Naft

69%

Draw or Sanat Naft

55%

Winning margin

Foolad FC wins by 2+

19%

Sanat Naft wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Foolad FC 1+ goals

68%

Foolad FC 2+ goals

31%

Foolad FC 3+ goals

11%

Sanat Naft 1+ goals

51%

Sanat Naft 2+ goals

16%

Sanat Naft 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Foolad FC (draw refunded)

66%

Sanat Naft (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Foolad FC at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.75 · 115 matches

Sanat Naft away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.22 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Foolad FC attack 1.03 + Sanat Naft defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.13

Sanat Naft attack 0.69 + Foolad FC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Foolad FC scores more

45%

level

31%

Sanat Naft scores more

23%

Foolad FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Foolad FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff