Foolad FC 1–0 Sanat Naft: Result & Stats

Foolad FC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sanat Naft

A. Vali 27'

2/17/2019

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 18Ghadir Stadium (Ahvāz (Ahwaz))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Foolad FC48%

×Draw32%

Sanat Naft21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Foolad FCExpected goals in this matchSanat Naft

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.64

Foolad FC

1.14

Sanat Naft

0.64

Foolad FC creates 78% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 77 away

1.02

creates per match

0.62

0.66

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Foolad FC

1.02

Sanat Naft

0.62

allows per match

Foolad FC

0.66

Sanat Naft

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Foolad FC+0.00on par

Sanat Naft+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Foolad FC ↓

Sanat Naft →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–111%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

11%89%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Foolad FC or draw

79%

Foolad FC or Sanat Naft

68%

Draw or Sanat Naft

52%

Winning margin

Foolad FC wins by 2+

21%

Sanat Naft wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Foolad FC 1+ goals

68%

Foolad FC 2+ goals

32%

Foolad FC 3+ goals

11%

Sanat Naft 1+ goals

47%

Sanat Naft 2+ goals

14%

Sanat Naft 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Foolad FC (draw refunded)

70%

Sanat Naft (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Foolad FC at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.66 · 101 matches

Sanat Naft away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.25 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Foolad FC attack 1.02 + Sanat Naft defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.14

Sanat Naft attack 0.62 + Foolad FC defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Foolad FC scores more

48%

level

32%

Sanat Naft scores more

21%

Foolad FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Foolad FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

A. Vali

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff