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Foolad FC vs Machine Sazi FC — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Foolad FC
Foolad FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Machine Sazi FC
Machine Sazi FC
6/29/2020Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 22Shohadaye Foolad Khoozestan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Foolad FC48%
×Draw30%
Machine Sazi FC21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Foolad FC
1.21
Machine Sazi FC
0.70

Foolad FC creates 73% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 45 away

creates per match

Foolad FC
1.03
Machine Sazi FC
0.64

allows per match

Foolad FC
0.75
Machine Sazi FC
1.40

finishing

Foolad FC+0.00on par
Machine Sazi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Foolad FC ↓

Machine Sazi FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Foolad FC or draw
79%
Foolad FC or Machine Sazi FC
70%
Draw or Machine Sazi FC
52%

Winning margin

Foolad FC wins by 2+
22%
Machine Sazi FC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Foolad FC 1+ goals
70%
Foolad FC 2+ goals
34%
Foolad FC 3+ goals
12%
Machine Sazi FC 1+ goals
50%
Machine Sazi FC 2+ goals
16%
Machine Sazi FC 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Foolad FC (draw refunded)
69%
Machine Sazi FC (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Foolad FC at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.75 · 115 matches

Machine Sazi FC away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.40 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Foolad FC attack 1.03 + Machine Sazi FC defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.21

Machine Sazi FC attack 0.64 + Foolad FC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Foolad FC scores more
48%
level
30%
Machine Sazi FC scores more
21%

Foolad FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Foolad FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Foolad FC vs Machine Sazi FC

Foolad FC beat Machine Sazi FC 2-1 in Persian Gulf Pro League on June 29, 2020.

The match was played at Shohadaye Foolad Khoozestan in Ahvaz.