Foolad FC 1–0 Kheybar Khorramabad: Result & Stats

Foolad FC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kheybar Khorramabad

G. Blanco 65'

9/19/2025

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 4Foolad Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Foolad FC47%

×Draw33%

Kheybar Khorramabad20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Foolad FCExpected goals in this matchKheybar Khorramabad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

0.60

Foolad FC

1.07

Kheybar Khorramabad

0.60

Foolad FC creates 78% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 26 away

1.02

creates per match

0.54

0.66

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Foolad FC

1.02

Kheybar Khorramabad

0.54

allows per match

Foolad FC

0.66

Kheybar Khorramabad

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Foolad FC+0.00on par

Kheybar Khorramabad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under77
Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Foolad FC ↓

Kheybar Khorramabad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–019%

0–111%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

81%19%1.5

50%50%2.5

23%77%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Foolad FC or draw

80%

Foolad FC or Kheybar Khorramabad

67%

Draw or Kheybar Khorramabad

53%

Winning margin

Foolad FC wins by 2+

19%

Kheybar Khorramabad wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Foolad FC 1+ goals

66%

Foolad FC 2+ goals

29%

Foolad FC 3+ goals

9%

Kheybar Khorramabad 1+ goals

45%

Kheybar Khorramabad 2+ goals

12%

Kheybar Khorramabad 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Foolad FC (draw refunded)

70%

Kheybar Khorramabad (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Foolad FC at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.66 · 101 matches

Kheybar Khorramabad away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.12 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Foolad FC attack 1.02 + Kheybar Khorramabad defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.07

Kheybar Khorramabad attack 0.54 + Foolad FC defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Foolad FC scores more

47%

level

33%

Kheybar Khorramabad scores more

20%

Foolad FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Foolad FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

A. Shojaei

22'

S. Albusabih

26'

S. Ansari

59'

A. Farsi← M. Saberipour

59'

M. Tabatabaei← A. Ghezel

65'

G. Blanco

73'

M. Aghajanpour

77'

M. Sefid← A. Azadmanesh

77'

H. Taherkhani← S. Albusabih

83'

M. Keshavarzi← Y. Mazraeh

85'

88'

M. Mohebi← M. Aghajanpour

89'

E. Mahrooghi← M. Soleimani

90+4'

M. Abbasi← G. Blanco

90+4'

A. Amirkhani← A. Razzaghpour

Foolad

Kheybar

1

Hamidi

77

▼

Azadmanes

6

Masoumi

33

▼

3

88

7

23

▼

Albusabih

10

Shojaei

99

▼

Ghezel

11

▼

81

5

6

2

▼

8

3

10

7

20

▼

Mazraeh

19

⚽

▼

Blanco

11

▼

Soleimani

Manager: Y. Golmohammadi

83'▲M. Keshavarzi←▼Y. Mazraeh

89'▲E. Mahrooghi←▼M. Soleimani

90+4'▲M. Abbasi←▼G. Blanco

90+4'▲A. Amirkhani←▼A. Razzaghpour

Foolad FC substitutes

9Mahrooghi14Abbasi23Amirkhani26Kazemi27Sarki29Bagheri30Akbarzadeh70Abolfazlzadeh77Keshavarzi83Moradi84Kazeminia

Manager: S. Daghighi

59'▲A. Farsi←▼M. Saberipour

59'▲M. Tabatabaei←▼A. Ghezel

77'▲M. Sefid←▼A. Azadmanesh

77'▲H. Taherkhani←▼S. Albusabih

88'▲M. Mohebi←▼M. Aghajanpour

Kheybar Khorramabad substitutes

FarsiArasteh2Sefid4Pasandideh8Yousefi9Tabatabaei12Dinarvand15Mohebi17Zarouni19Ghanbari70Taherkhani