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Foolad FC vs Esteghlal FC — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Foolad FC
Foolad FC
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Esteghlal FC
Esteghlal FC
12/7/2024Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 11Shohadaye Foolad Khoozestan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 115+ matches

Foolad FC31%
×Draw32%
Esteghlal FC38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Foolad FC
0.89
Esteghlal FC
1.02

Esteghlal FC creates 15% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 116 away

creates per match

Foolad FC
1.03
Esteghlal FC
1.30

allows per match

Foolad FC
0.75
Esteghlal FC
0.75

finishing

Foolad FC+0.00on par
Esteghlal FC+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Foolad FC ↓

Esteghlal FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Foolad FC or draw
62%
Foolad FC or Esteghlal FC
68%
Draw or Esteghlal FC
69%

Winning margin

Foolad FC wins by 2+
11%
Esteghlal FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Foolad FC 1+ goals
59%
Foolad FC 2+ goals
22%
Foolad FC 3+ goals
6%
Esteghlal FC 1+ goals
64%
Esteghlal FC 2+ goals
27%
Esteghlal FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Foolad FC (draw refunded)
45%
Esteghlal FC (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Foolad FC at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.75 · 115 matches

Esteghlal FC away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.75 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Foolad FC attack 1.03 + Esteghlal FC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.89

Esteghlal FC attack 1.30 + Foolad FC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Foolad FC scores more
31%
level
32%
Esteghlal FC scores more
38%

Esteghlal FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Esteghlal FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Foolad FC vs Esteghlal FC

Esteghlal FC beat Foolad FC 2-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on December 7, 2024.

The match was played at Shohadaye Foolad Khoozestan in Ahvaz.