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Foolad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC — AFC Champions League 2018

Foolad FC
Foolad FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Al-Hilal Saudi FCadvanced
2/23/2023AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Quarter-finalsAl Janoub Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Foolad FC29%
×Draw28%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Foolad FC
0.98
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
1.27

Al-Hilal Saudi FC creates 30% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 39 away

creates per match

Foolad FC
1.00
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2.05

allows per match

Foolad FC
0.50
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
0.97

finishing

Foolad FC+0.00on par
Al-Hilal Saudi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Foolad FC ↓

Al-Hilal Saudi FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Foolad FC or draw
57%
Foolad FC or Al-Hilal Saudi FC
72%
Draw or Al-Hilal Saudi FC
71%

Winning margin

Foolad FC wins by 2+
10%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Foolad FC 1+ goals
62%
Foolad FC 2+ goals
26%
Foolad FC 3+ goals
8%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1+ goals
72%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2+ goals
36%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Foolad FC (draw refunded)
40%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Foolad FC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

Al-Hilal Saudi FC away — creates 2.05, concedes 0.97 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Foolad FC attack 1.00 + Al-Hilal Saudi FC defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.98

Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 2.05 + Foolad FC defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Foolad FC scores more
29%
level
28%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC scores more
43%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Al-Hilal Saudi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Foolad FC 0–1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC

Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Foolad FC 1-0 in AFC Champions League on February 23, 2023.

The match was played at Al Janoub Stadium in Al Wakrah.