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Foolad FC vs Al-Gharafa — AFC Champions League 2018

Foolad FC
Foolad FC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al-Gharafa
Al-Gharafa
4/7/2022AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 1Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Foolad FC67%
×Draw20%
Al-Gharafa14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Foolad FC
2.10
Al-Gharafa
0.82

Foolad FC creates 156% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 14 away

creates per match

Foolad FC
1.00
Al-Gharafa
1.14

allows per match

Foolad FC
0.50
Al-Gharafa
3.21

finishing

Foolad FC+0.00on par
Al-Gharafa+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Foolad FC ↓

Al-Gharafa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Foolad FC or draw
86%
Foolad FC or Al-Gharafa
80%
Draw or Al-Gharafa
33%

Winning margin

Foolad FC wins by 2+
42%
Al-Gharafa wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Foolad FC 1+ goals
88%
Foolad FC 2+ goals
62%
Foolad FC 3+ goals
35%
Al-Gharafa 1+ goals
56%
Al-Gharafa 2+ goals
20%
Al-Gharafa 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Foolad FC (draw refunded)
83%
Al-Gharafa (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Foolad FC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

Al-Gharafa away — creates 1.14, concedes 3.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Foolad FC attack 1.00 + Al-Gharafa defence 3.21 → ÷2 → 2.10

Al-Gharafa attack 1.14 + Foolad FC defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Foolad FC scores more
67%
level
20%
Al-Gharafa scores more
14%

Foolad FC at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Foolad FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Foolad FC 0–0 Al-Gharafa

Foolad FC and Al-Gharafa drew 0-0 in AFC Champions League on April 7, 2022.

The match was played at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium in Jeddah.