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Fontinhas vs Vitoria Setubal — Liga 3 2021

Fontinhas
Fontinhas
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Vitoria Setubal
Vitoria Setubal
9/3/2022Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 3Estádio João Paulo II

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Fontinhas43%
×Draw27%
Vitoria Setubal30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fontinhas
1.35
Vitoria Setubal
1.08

Fontinhas creates 25% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 28 away

creates per match

Fontinhas
1.14
Vitoria Setubal
0.96

allows per match

Fontinhas
1.21
Vitoria Setubal
1.57

finishing

Fontinhas+0.00on par
Vitoria Setubal+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fontinhas ↓

Vitoria Setubal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Fontinhas or draw
70%
Fontinhas or Vitoria Setubal
73%
Draw or Vitoria Setubal
57%

Winning margin

Fontinhas wins by 2+
20%
Vitoria Setubal wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Fontinhas 1+ goals
74%
Fontinhas 2+ goals
39%
Fontinhas 3+ goals
15%
Vitoria Setubal 1+ goals
66%
Vitoria Setubal 2+ goals
29%
Vitoria Setubal 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Fontinhas (draw refunded)
59%
Vitoria Setubal (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fontinhas at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

Vitoria Setubal away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.57 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fontinhas attack 1.14 + Vitoria Setubal defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.35

Vitoria Setubal attack 0.96 + Fontinhas defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Fontinhas scores more
43%
level
27%
Vitoria Setubal scores more
30%

Fontinhas at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Fontinhas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 3: Fontinhas 2–2 Vitoria Setubal

Fontinhas and Vitoria Setubal drew 2-2 in Liga 3 on September 3, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio João Paulo II in Ilha Terceira, Açores.