Fontinhas 1–1 Real: Result & Stats

Fontinhas

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Real

11/18/2020

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G · Group G - 5Campo Municipal Dr. Durval Monteiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Fontinhas42%

×Draw24%

Real34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FontinhasExpected goals in this matchReal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.41

Fontinhas

1.59

Real

1.41

Fontinhas creates 13% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

1.82

creates per match

1.45

1.36

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Fontinhas

1.82

Real

1.45

allows per match

Fontinhas

1.36

Real

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fontinhas+0.00on par

Real+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fontinhas ↓

Real →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Fontinhas or draw

66%

Fontinhas or Real

76%

Draw or Real

58%

Winning margin

Fontinhas wins by 2+

21%

Real wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Fontinhas 1+ goals

80%

Fontinhas 2+ goals

47%

Fontinhas 3+ goals

21%

Real 1+ goals

76%

Real 2+ goals

41%

Real 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Fontinhas (draw refunded)

55%

Real (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fontinhas at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

Real away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fontinhas attack 1.82 + Real defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.59

Real attack 1.45 + Fontinhas defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Fontinhas scores more

42%

level

24%

Real scores more

34%

Fontinhas at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Fontinhas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff