Fontinhas 1–3 Pinhalnovense: Result & Stats

Fontinhas

FT

1 – 3

Pinhalnovense

9/8/2019

Taça de Portugal · 1st RoundCampo Municipal Dr. Durval Monteiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Fontinhas43%

×Draw23%

Pinhalnovense34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FontinhasExpected goals in this matchPinhalnovense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.48

Fontinhas

1.70

Pinhalnovense

1.48

Fontinhas creates 15% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

1.40

creates per match

1.75

1.20

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Fontinhas

1.40

Pinhalnovense

1.75

allows per match

Fontinhas

1.20

Pinhalnovense

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fontinhas+0.00on par

Pinhalnovense+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fontinhas ↓

Pinhalnovense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Fontinhas or draw

66%

Fontinhas or Pinhalnovense

77%

Draw or Pinhalnovense

57%

Winning margin

Fontinhas wins by 2+

22%

Pinhalnovense wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Fontinhas 1+ goals

82%

Fontinhas 2+ goals

51%

Fontinhas 3+ goals

24%

Pinhalnovense 1+ goals

77%

Pinhalnovense 2+ goals

43%

Pinhalnovense 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Fontinhas (draw refunded)

56%

Pinhalnovense (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fontinhas at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Pinhalnovense away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fontinhas attack 1.40 + Pinhalnovense defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.70

Pinhalnovense attack 1.75 + Fontinhas defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Fontinhas scores more

43%

level

23%

Pinhalnovense scores more

34%

Fontinhas at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Fontinhas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff