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Fontinhas vs Fafe — Taça de Portugal 2018

Fontinhas
Fontinhas
AET
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Fafe
Fafe
12/12/2020Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 4th RoundCampo Municipal Dr. Durval Monteiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Fontinhas22%
×Draw27%
Fafe51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fontinhas
0.82
Fafe
1.42

Fafe creates 73% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Fontinhas
1.40
Fafe
1.63

allows per match

Fontinhas
1.20
Fafe
0.25

finishing

Fontinhas+0.00on par
Fafe+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fontinhas ↓

Fafe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–115%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Fontinhas or draw
49%
Fontinhas or Fafe
73%
Draw or Fafe
78%

Winning margin

Fontinhas wins by 2+
7%
Fafe wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Fontinhas 1+ goals
56%
Fontinhas 2+ goals
20%
Fontinhas 3+ goals
5%
Fafe 1+ goals
76%
Fafe 2+ goals
41%
Fafe 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Fontinhas (draw refunded)
30%
Fafe (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fontinhas at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Fafe away — creates 1.63, concedes 0.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fontinhas attack 1.40 + Fafe defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.82

Fafe attack 1.63 + Fontinhas defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Fontinhas scores more
22%
level
27%
Fafe scores more
51%

Fafe at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Fafe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fontinhas vs Fafe

Fontinhas and Fafe drew 1-1 in Taça de Portugal on December 12, 2020.

The match was played at Campo Municipal Dr. Durval Monteiro in Fontinhas.